July 31 2005 – 02:00 UTC
The tropical wave passing over Hispaniola is still being monitored for signs of organization. Yesterday evening, the forecast took the bulk of low level energy north of Hispaniola. Over the past 24 hours, the low level circulation spotted yesterday has moved into the Dominican Republic, however. Interaction with land will inhibit tropical development another 24 hours. Notwithstanding, the northern end of the sharp wave axis is north of Puerto Rico. In addition to land interaction, the upper low to the northwest of the wave axis is still generating 30-40 knots of shear. All global model guidance dissipates this upper low within 24-48 hours. The available model guidance can be backed up by water vapor trends, which clearly show the upper low weakening ever so slightly. Upper level winds will begin to relax over the southwest Atlantic once this feature is no longer present. Otherwise, atmospheric conditions will remain hostile for tropical cyclogenesis for the next 24-48 hours. The SHIPS intensity model has strengthened 92L significantly for several runs and that has not changed. One should know that the system under investigation must be initalized in the model as a tropical depression in order for it to run properly. Therefore, the intensity forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, but they should not be dismissed entirely. Development is no longer expected within the next 24-36 hours, but it is still considered quite possible beyond that period.